Analysis | Tony Walker: What does the fall of Afghanistan mean to the Middle East?

The situation in Afghanistan is worrying, because most parts of the Middle East are in danger of falling into chaos, wrote Tony Walker.

In the 19th century, “Great game“Used to describe the British-Russian Empire’s struggle for power and influence in Afghanistan and neighboring Central and South Asian territories.

Both parties are in the so-called “Imperial cemetery“.

Two centuries later, an American superpower was reminded Similar reality.

Afghanistan suffered a fiasco, including a 300,000 American-trained and equipped Afghan army Collapsed after a few hours A reminder that the United States has limited power in the wider Middle East.

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U.S. President Joe Biden may be enduring The sharpest criticism The withdrawal was carried out disastrously. However, there are many responsibilities to be resolved, which can be traced back to the original ill-fated decision”Nation building“A country that has resisted outside interference for thousands of years.

Later The fall of Kabul And the United States hastily withdrew its troops from a country that it has squandered $1 trillion, the question remains: What is the next step in the Middle East?

This is a problem. The arc extends from Morocco in the west to Pakistan in the east, from Turkey in the north to the Gulf, and then to the Horn of Africa.

Every corner of the Middle East and North Africa will be affected in some way by the failure of American authority in Afghanistan. This is the longest war in its history.

The liquidation of the United States has also been recognized by its NATO allies and Australia.Australian Participating inconsiderately in an open commitment to Afghanistan Should be condemned.

A new Saigon?

Inevitably, Comparison in progress 46 years ago, between the panic evacuation of the United States from Kabul and similar scenes in Saigon.

In some respects, the situation in Afghanistan is even more worrying, because most parts of the Middle East are in danger of falling into chaos.

The defeat of the South Vietnamese army in 1975 may have been Affected the development of neighboring countries of Indochina, But the aftermath is largely controlled.

The difference in Afghanistan is that although the credibility and self-confidence of the United States have been hit in Vietnam, it was still the dominant military force in the Western Pacific before China’s rise.

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In the Middle East, a weakened Washington — whose confidence in its ability to fulfill its promises has been shaken, if not dashed — will find its authority to be questioned a lot.

This is when China and Russia are testing the determination of the United States on a global scale. In the area itself, Turkey and Iran It is already seeking to fill the vacuum exposed by the failure of the United States.

For their own reasons, Beijing and Moscow have a Interest in the future of AfghanistanFor China, this is not just about sharing borders, but for Russia, the historical concern is that Afghan extremism will infect the Muslim population of the country and its neighboring nation-states.

Recently, China has been training Taliban leaders.Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a forum Well-known meeting Last month, he met with Mullah Abdul Gani Barada, the political leader of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Then there is PakistanOver the years, he has secretly and publicly supported the Taliban. Islamabad will see an opportunity for itself to assume a more important regional role in the extreme discomfort of the United States.

This is not to forget Pakistan’s close relationship with China and its tense relationship with the United States.

In Afghanistan itself, the Taliban may fulfill its promises that it has changed. It will seek to establish consensus rule in a country full of bloody races and tribal divisions.

Given the early signs Cruel Taliban revenge Facing the panic reaction of the enemy and the shocked Afghan people, to believe that great changes have taken place will require a leap of faith.

What impact will it have on the Middle East?

Will the franchise rights of Al-Qaida and the Islamic State be allowed to regain a foothold in Afghanistan controlled by the Taliban? Will the Taliban become a national supporter of terrorism again? Will it continue to allow Afghanistan to be used as a huge market garden for the opium trade?

In other words, will the Taliban change its behavior so that it does not pose a threat to neighboring countries or even the entire region?

From the perspective of the United States, its withdrawal from Afghanistan made it attempt to Breathing life into the nuclear agreement with Iran As the main part of its unfinished Middle East affairs-if we put aside the seemingly thorny Israeli-Palestinian dispute.

The attempt to revitalize the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) has become the cornerstone of the Biden administration’s efforts to participate in Middle East affairs in a more constructive manner.

Progress has been faltering.Elect one The new tough Iranian president This further complicates the effort to reach a compromise. Failure to restore the JCPOA, which was abandoned by President Donald Trump, will add a new layer of uncertainty and risk to the calculations in the Middle East.

There is no party that cares more about developments in neighboring Afghanistan than the leadership of Tehran. Given Tehran’s concerns about the abuse of the Shi’ite population in Afghanistan, the relationship between Iran and the Taliban is sometimes worrying and sometimes cooperative.

Shia Iran and the Sunni fundamentalist Taliban are not natural partners.

Further afield, the latest developments in Afghanistan will cause the Gulf countries to pay close attention. During the peace talks with the defeated Ghani government, Qatar provided a diplomatic safe haven for the Taliban.This Peace initiativeWith the support of the United States, being exposed now is a foil to the Taliban’s ambition to regain power on its own strength.

How could any rational observer believe that otherwise it would be confusing.

Saudi Arabia will be disturbed by the developments in the past few days, because it is not in Riyadh’s interest to weaken the authority of the United States in the region. But the Saudis have a long-term connection with the Taliban.

In Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy, Afghanistan is not a zero-sum game.

More generally, the blow to the US position in the region will worry its moderate Arab allies. This includes Egypt and Jordan. For both parties, the events in Afghanistan are not good news because their respective versions of the Taliban are lurking in the shadows.

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The success of the Taliban in Afghanistan will also have an impact on the most flammable corners of the Middle East. In parts of Iraq and Syria where the United States maintains a military presence, the withdrawal of the United States will be disturbing.

In Lebanon, this has become Failure status, Afghanistan’s collapse will be even worse.

Israel will calculate the impact of the setbacks suffered by its main allies. Increasing instability in the Middle East seems to be detrimental to Israel.

In the next phase, the United States will undoubtedly withdraw all but the most urgent Middle East commitments. This will be a time for it to reflect on what lessons it can learn from the painful experience of Afghanistan.

As far as the United States and its allies are concerned, the most important lesson is that fighting a “lost country” war is a failed proposition.

Tony Walker, A colleague of the vice-principal, La Trobe University

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