this Bureau of Economic Analysis It was announced today that the seasonally adjusted annual real GDP growth rate of the United States in the fourth quarter was 3.3%. This increase brings GDP levels 3.1% higher than a year ago. These figures are consistent with the historical average GDP growth rate of 3.1% over the past 70 years, which is much higher than the 2% average over the past 20 years. The outcome of 2023 is far better than many expected.
Strong growth over the past two quarters has brought Ecobrowser Recession Indicator Index All the way down to 0.9%. Despite difficulties in the first half of 2022, the U.S. expansion is now 3-1/2 years old.
Inventory accumulation drove strong third-quarter numbers. In contrast, the fourth quarter was all driven by final sales growth. Even residential fixed investment, which we might expect to bear the brunt of the Fed's tightening measures, continues to make a small positive contribution to GDP growth.
Annual inflation, as measured by the implicit personal consumption expenditures deflator, remains higher than the Fed wants. But it's been declining, and if we were to judge just on a 6-month or 3-month rate, we'd say mission accomplished.
So far, so good.