Scientists say that as many as 60,000 people may die of flu this winter, and they warn that the combination of seasonal viruses and Covid-19 may mean National Health Service “Unable to cope” this winter.
Experts say that if not controlled, this year’s flu season may be particularly deadly, but a series of measures can help reduce the risk, including strengthening flu vaccination plans and rapid flu testing.
The new report warns that the mixture of Covid-19, influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) may put severe stress on the NHS this winter.
scientists It is said that people who are sick should “keep away” to avoid spreading flu and other winter viruses, and to stop the annual pressure on the NHS.
Covid-19 restrictions meant that many respiratory viruses were shut out last winter.
But some experts worry about what this might mean for people’s immunity to such diseases. Virologists predict that they will return this year as people become more social.
A new report from the Academy of Medical Sciences points out that there is still a high degree of uncertainty about the impact of influenza and other respiratory diseases on the NHS in winter.
The new report states that the number of hospitalizations and deaths for influenza and RSV may be twice as many as in “normal” years and may coincide with the increase in Covid-19 infections.
Models show that 15,000 to 60,000 people may die of flu this winter.
And because of the current wave of infections, the NHS may face difficulties trying to keep up with the backlog of care — more than 5 million people United Kingdom On the waiting list.
The report highlighted other problems that health services face as the winter enters, including shortages of staff and fewer beds.
Most importantly, people’s delay in seeking help due to illness may also lead to increased support for diseases such as asthma, heart disease and stroke this winter.
But experts say that measures can be taken to reduce the risk, including a widespread flu campaign that is expected to take place later this year and last for more than 50 years.
They also called for the expansion of Covid-19 testing to include influenza and RSV testing-for example, if general practitioners can quickly confirm whether a patient has influenza, they will be able to prescribe antiviral drugs faster, which means that the person’s The condition will be reduced and the burden on the NHS will be reduced.
The author said that more measures must be taken to support people’s self-isolation, and the NHS needs to “increase” the number of staff, beds, and capacity.
At the same time, they called government Provide more understandable guidelines on what precautions the public can take to protect themselves and those around them from Covid-19, such as wearing face masks in crowded indoor spaces, maintaining physical distance and minimizing the spread of infection.
Professor Sir Stephen Holgate, chair of the expert advisory group that wrote the report, said: “There are four main challenges: First, the surge of respiratory viruses can cause widespread health problems and put pressure on the NHS.
“Secondly, we are dealing with the third wave of Covid-19 and multiple outbreaks. The NHS must catch up with the backlog accumulated over the past 15 months or so. This will be a real challenge.
“Third, the NHS is already under pressure, so it may not be able to cope with these winter challenges in the future.
“Finally, due to the pandemic, the physical and mental health of the British population is worse.”
He added: “The whole society will learn from the past 15 months that it is unacceptable for all these respiratory viruses (we have) to rag around in winter and almost shut down our national health services.
“If we should do something to prevent transmission, we should do it. Even if it means wearing a mask and respecting each other’s space.”
He added: “We really should change the way we operate as a society to stop the annual continuous pressure on health services caused by all these viruses, which just means a change in behavior.”
Professor Dame Anne Johnson, chairman of the Academy of Medical Sciences and member of the expert advisory panel, added: “We are not saying that we are about to experience the worst winter ever. We are saying that we have a lot of uncertain things that may hit us in the winter. We need to Consider mitigation.”
She added: “I hope we as a society will advance some of these behavior changes. When you are sick, please stay away, because that is actually when you are most contagious, please get tested-if you are infected with Covid , You need to continue to conduct cautious self-isolation.”
Mrs. Anne said that the flu data was “uncertain” and that the figure of 60,000 was “the worst possible scenario” and added that “the flu is very unpredictable”.
Professor Azra Ghani, a member of the expert advisory group, added: “We have never experienced this kind of social closure and really reduce the spread to this degree. It is difficult to know what impact this will have.
“This is really just a warning, saying,’We can do something about this. It is not inevitable. We can take measures and reduce the impact.”
An NHS spokesperson said: “Throughout the pandemic, NHS staff responded to the growing demand by expanding the hospital’s intensive care capacity by 50%, managing hospital admissions through mutual assistance, and cooperating with independent agencies.
“Before the onset of winter, the NHS will continue to implement tried-and-tested plans to support hospitals so that they can continue to provide patients with the care they need while restoring daily operations to pre-pandemic levels and vaccinating the country against Covid .”
The NHS announced that it will increase the number of ambulance personnel before the onset of winter.
The British NHS said it will allocate 55 million pounds to the ambulance trust fund to help relieve stress, including recruiting more 999 employees, staff and clinicians, as well as more liaison officers responsible for transferring patients from ambulances to hospitals.
