The reading beat expectations, 0.6% m/m vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus (0.1% vs -0.1% core).
figure 1: CPI headlines YoY (tan), MoM (green), MoM (blue). The NBER uses shades of grey to define the peak and trough dates of the recession. Source: BLS calculated by FRED, NBER and authors.
figure 2: CPI core YoY (tan), MoM (green), MoM (blue). The NBER uses shades of grey to define the peak and trough dates of the recession. Source: BLS calculated by FRED, NBER and authors.
Note that the narrower indices (the core index and the 16% cut index) are up month-over-month from the previous month, albeit below recent peaks.
image 3: CPI headline MoM (blue), core (tan), 16% trim (green). The NBER uses shades of grey to define the peak and trough dates of the recession. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.
