If you think back to the UK in 2016 and beyond, there were a series of shockingly horrific predictions about the impact of Brexit on the UK. The scaremongering failed to deter voters, and the referendum ultimately voted in favor of Brexit. I seem to have lost some friends because of my support for the yes vote – although one must question the basis of the relationship in the first place. Most doomsday predictions have not come true, although given the incompetence of the Conservative government and the fact that the world has experienced one of the worst disruptions in human history (aka COVID-19), it is difficult to conduct a convincing study of the subject. But I looked at the latest data released by the Office for National Statistics on December 19, 2023, which includes: Overseas travel and tourism, tentative: September 2023 – which reminds me of predictions that European tourism will collapse, making it difficult for Brits to holiday on the continent after Brexit. The data shows that this prediction is like so many predictions — gibberish.
In a few weeks I will be returning to the UK and Europe for the first time since early 2020.
I was giving a series of lectures in Italy when the Italian government imposed emergency restrictions in northern Italy in response to an outbreak of a then-unknown virus.
I have just returned to Australia within a few days of our borders being closed.
Meanwhile, the UK has left the EU.
When entering the UK, I often queue at immigration and watch EU passport holders breeze through in separate lanes.
That's all I ever thought about the Commonwealth.
I would be interested to see for myself how these border arrangements will affect entry.
As Britain goes through the process of freeing itself from the neoliberal catastrophe of the European Union, predictions of doom abound.
Don’t get me wrong, they are not free from neoliberalism.
They had just re-established their legal autonomy and neoliberalism was not part of their legal and constitutional structures, whereas in the EU the ideology of neoliberalism was embedded in the treaties that governed the EU.
So if the political class were so moved, Britain could become very progressive in no time.
That’s why I mentioned that the Conservative Party’s continued incompetence in power obscures the undoubted new potential that Brexit brings.
But in saying this, do not give the impression that I support Labour's views.
Far away.
Starmer would be a disaster.
My hopes for Britain rest on the emergence of a new political force that combines the best of the progressive tradition with a deep understanding of the monetary system.
I may have wished for a long time!
One of the predictions relates to tourism.
Apparently there will be too much red tape at the border into the UK, which will prevent Europeans from holidaying there after Brexit.
For British tourists, the hassles of traveling to the continent without free entry would have the same negative impact on travel across the English Channel from west to east.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics tell us three things very clearly:
1. The epidemic has caused significant disruption to the tourism industry.
2. Brexit has not caused major disruption to the tourism industry.
3. The surge in living costs mainly caused by (1) also has a negative impact.
The first graph shows the total number of visits abroad by UK residents since January 2019.
The second graph shows the proportion of visits to Europe (expressed as a percentage).
It can be said that the impact of the epidemic is obvious, but Brexit has no obvious negative impact.
How about traveling from east to west (i.e. from Europe to the UK)?
The chart below shows the total number of visits abroad by EU residents since January 2019.
A very similar pattern has emerged again, one dominated by the pandemic, with cost-of-living pressures setting in as its effects recede.
The next chart does provide some information about the impact of Brexit – if it is discernible at all.
Visitor flow patterns into the UK from the EU have not changed significantly since Brexit.
The previous charts cover aggregated data trends.
While the ONS data released this week doesn't allow us to break down the “purpose of visit” statistics into destinations, it does provide more information.
The Office for National Statistics breaks down total visits in and out of the UK into holiday, business, visiting friends or relatives and miscellaneous.
The first chart shows UK residents traveling abroad by purpose from January 2019 to September 2023.
Note that the business lines are plotted against the right-hand axis.
If you consider the trends in the next two charts based on the data shown above, one can make reasonable guesses about the UK's interaction with Europe without knowing exactly where the by-destination trips shown below are going and originating.
Again, it’s hard to see any significant Brexit-style impacts.
The epidemic dominates.
The chart below shows overseas residents traveling to the UK by purpose from January 2019 to September 2023.
Same story.
We clearly need more granular data and longer time series (well beyond the pandemic) before we can determine the impact of Brexit on travel between the UK and Europe, and whether Brexit has changed the nature of travel in any significant way. Purpose – for example, to reduce business travel from Europe to and from the UK.
There are no clear impacts yet, so we can safely conclude at this stage that predictions made a few years ago that leaving the EU would irreversibly change these patterns do not appear to have materialized.
in conclusion
While there are many factors at play here, I do not see any clear negative impact of Brexit on cross-Channel tourism, as predicted by opponents.
Queues may be longer and there may be more forms to fill in, but the figures show figures are broadly the same as before Brexit, with only the pandemic and cost-of-living pressures showing significant changes. Influence.
Over time, we will have more data, which will allow us to break down more clearly the impact of Brexit on the epidemic.
We will then be able to better assess the individual impacts.
But data as of September 2023 show that Brexit forecasts for the travel industry have yet to materialize.
Today's post is relatively short as I have a bit of a flight today and have to get some stuff together before I take the day off next week.
Episode 8 of The Smith Family Comics launches tomorrow (Friday, December 22, 2023).
My blog will be on holiday next week and I will be using this time to plan out the structure of a book I hope to complete in the coming year, which is about whether capitalism has reached its end point and is in a position to fail.
That's enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2023 William Mitchell. all rights reserved.
