Annualized monthly GDP fell 7.1 percentage points from the previous month Below are key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus a picture of monthly GDP.
figure 1: Nonfarm employment (bold dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in 2017 (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales $ in 2017 (black ), consumption of monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ in 2017 (light blue), monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ in 2017 (pink), second release of GDP (blue bar), as of 2/29 GDPNow for 2024Q1 (lavender box), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Fed, BEA 2023Q4 Version 2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (3/1), S&P Global Market Insights (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (3/1/Released in 2024) and the author's calculations.
Although monthly GDP fell in January, final sales fell by only 4.1 percentage points on an annual basis, while nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment and personal income excluding current transfers both rose during the month. According to the Bloomberg consensus, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 190,000 in February. As a result, the economy appeared to be continuing to grow in January.
calculated risk It was pointed out that heavy truck sales increased in February.I have used this as a consistent indicator For past recessions (e.g. better than VMT or gasoline consumption). Here are today's pictures.
figure 2: Heavy truck sales, 000, sa (blue, left axis), and heavy truck sales annual growth rate (tan, right axis). NBER-defined recession peak-to-trough dates appear gray. Source: BEA via FRED, February Calculated Risk, NBER, and author's calculations.
The pseudo-R2 for the probabilistic regression is about 0.29 over the 1970-2023 period, and has historically (except for 1990-91) been a good indicator of recessions (remember, this is a coincidence indicator).
image 3: Probability of recession estimated from probabilistic regression, 1970-2023 (blue), red dashed line is the 50% probability threshold. NBER-defined recession peak-to-trough dates appear gray. Source: NBER and author's calculations.
Given the growth in heavy-duty truck sales, I'm even more reluctant to view February as the start date of the recession.
