Industrial production data was released yesterday, and retail sales data were released today.
figure 1: The number of non-agricultural employment released in June (dark blue), Bloomberg’s consensus on the number of non-agricultural employment in July (light blue+), industrial production (red) as of July 16th, excluding 2012 Ch.2012 Trade sales of $ (black), consumption of Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP of Ch.2012$ (pink), all logarithms are normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, calculated by FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (released 7/1/2021), NBER and author.
Industrial production continued to grow in May, which was lower than Bloomberg consensus (0.4% vs. 0.6%), and the growth rate was slightly lower than the previous month’s record. Manufacturing output declined slightly (-0.1% vs. +0.2% consensus).
Nominal retail sales increased again, Especially when excluding carsRetail sales may provide some insight into the trajectories of the two series contained in Figure 1—sales and consumption in the manufacturing and trading industries—but this fit is not very close.
figure 2: Excluding retail sales of food services, 1982-84 million (blue-green), manufacturing and trade sales, billions of dollars. 2012$ SAAR (black). Retail sales (excluding food) are reduced using CPI-all. Source: Census conducted by FRED, BLS, Fed of St. Louis conducted by FRED, and author’s calculations.
image 3: Retail and food services, 1982-84 million USD (blue-green), consumption, 1 billion USD SAAR (purple) in 2012. CPI-all is used for retail sales. Source: Census conducted through FRED, BEA, BLS, FRED of St. Louis through FRED, and author’s calculations.
The latest observations of actual manufacturing and trade sales are in April, and consumption is in May. Inferred with reference to retail sales, these two series seem likely to continue to grow, but it is difficult to guarantee.
Combining these retail sales data, the New York Fed now forecasts 3.2% in the second quarter, Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 7.5%, and IHS-MarkIt at 8%.
