IHS-MarkIt (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) today released its monthly GDP. The employment situation in July will be announced this Friday.
figure 1: The number of non-agricultural employment released in June (dark blue), Bloomberg as of August 2 unanimously agreed on the number of non-agricultural employment in July (light blue +), industrial production (red), excluding the 2012 Chapter 2 transfer Personal income (green), manufacturing and Ch.2012$ trade sales (black), Ch.2012$ consumption (light blue) and Ch.2012$ monthly GDP (pink), all logarithms are normalized Turn into 2020M02=0. The decline date defined by NBER is shaded in gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, calculated by FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (released 8/2/2021), NBER and author.
Both monthly GDP and personal income growth excluding frequent transfers have stagnated at their previous peak levels. Relative to the peak NBER of 2020M02, employment continues to lag behind, falling by 4.5% (logarithmic calculation). If the number of non-farm payrolls (NFP) in July increased by 900,000 as Bloomberg unanimously predicted, it would still fall by 3.9%.
The table below shows the contribution to GDP growth in June.
Throughout the quarter, final sales growth exceeded GDP growth (see here postal), so the cumulative contribution of inventory is -2.1% (SAAR). In the past two months, net exports have also been dragging down.
