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Business cycle indicators as of mid-September

Industrial production unexpectedly rose 0.4% on Friday, compared with Bloomberg expectations of 0.1%. Below are the key indicators followed by NBER BCDC along with a picture of monthly GDP.

figure 1: Nonfarm employment, NFP included in preliminary benchmark (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfer payments in 2012 (green), manufacturing and trade sales in 2012 $ ( Black), Ch.2012$ consumption (light blue), Ch.2012$ monthly GDP (pink), GDP (blue bar), GDPNow in 2023Q2 is 8/31, all logarithms are normalized to 2021M11=0 . Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 second release (via FREDb), S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (9/1/2023 release) and the author’s calculations.

Please note, Lewis-Mertens-Stock/New York Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index Data as of September 6 show that economic growth has picked up slightly (annual growth of 1.88%).

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