Here is a picture of the key indicators used by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee in its business cycle chronology:
figure 1: CES nonfarm payrolls (bold blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (cyan), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2017 personal income excluding current transfers (bold green), Manufacturing and trade sales in 2017 Ch.2017$ (black), 2017 Ch.2017$ consumption (light blue), 2017 Ch.2017$ monthly GDP (pink), the third release of GDP (blue bar), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023 Q4 2nd Edition, S&P Global Market Insights (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (3/1/Released in 2024) and the author's calculations.
We can be fairly certain that job growth is positive.See alternative indicators here postal.
Below are some alternative indicators of economic activity.
figure 2: Top panel: GDO (blue bar), coincidence index (blue line), and author seasonally adjusted vehicle mileage using X-13 (tan line), all in logarithmic form, 2021M11=0; Middle panel: Heavy truck sales , SAAR, (blue line), all in logarithmic form, 2021M11=0; Bottom panel: Instant Sam rule (blue) and recession threshold (red dashed line). Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, NHTSA, Census Bureau, FRED, and author's calculations.
While vehicle miles traveled has leveled off, with year-over-year growth of -0.8% in January, there are no clear indicators that a recession is about to begin.
