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Business cycle indicators for early October

Based on the monthly GDP released today, we can see the following economic picture.

figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment included in preliminary benchmark (dark blue), suggesting September NFP included in Bloomberg 10/2 consensus (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2017 personal income excluding transfers ( green), manufacturing and trade sales$ in 2017 (black), consumption$ in 2017 (light blue), and monthly GDP$ (pink), GDP in 2017 (blue bars), all logarithms normalized For 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 released for the second time through FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (10/2/2023 release), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (released October 2, 2023), and author’s calculations.

Comment From SPGMI:

Monthly GDP grew 0.4% in August after growing 0.5% in July
(Unmodified). Growth in August continues strong monthly trend
Earnings starting in May. Over the four-month period, monthly GDP growth was 5.7% annually. August’s growth was driven entirely by gains in net exports and nonfarm inventory investment; final domestic sales were essentially flat in August. The average monthly GDP in July and August was 4.6% higher than the second quarter average on an annualized basis. Our latest forecast for third-quarter GDP growth of 4.8% implies a slight monthly decline in September GDP (0.1%).

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