Industrial production data showed an unexpected upside (0.5% m/m vs. -0.1 consensus) as manufacturing grew too big (1% vs. 0.1% consensus), here’s the picture from the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee series (BCDC), plus S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) Formerly Macroeconomic Advisor’s Monthly GDP.
figure 1: Non-farm payrolls, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg 5/16 consensus (blue+), private employment (orange), industrial production (red), China 2012 personal income excluding transfers (green), manufacturing and Trade Sales Ch.2012 USD (black), Ch.2012 USD Consumption (light blue) and Ch.2012 USD Monthly GDP (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. The Bloomberg consensus level is calculated by adding the forecast change to the previously unrevised level of available employment at the time of the forecast. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q1 released in advance via FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (5/1/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
It is interesting to consider the evolution of two other indicators of broad economic conditions: GDP+ and the Philadelphia Fed’s US coincident index.
figure 2: GDP+, scaled to Q4 2019, in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR (blue bar, left log scale) and coincidence index (blue, right log scale). Lavender shading indicates a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Interestingly, both GDP+ and the coincident index (the latter based mostly on labor market indicators) do not point to a recession in 1H22.
