The consensus job growth in July was 200,000, GDPNow increased by 0.5% MoM in June, and GDPNow increased by 3.9% MoM.
figure 1: Non-farm employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2012 personal income excluding transfers (green), 2012 manufacturing and trade sales $ (black), 2012 consumption Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP for Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), GDPNow for Q2 2023 at 8/1, all log normalized to 2021M11=0 . Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 via FRED advance release, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigeria Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (8/1/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
With the exception of industrial production, currently available indicators are hard to spot a recession.
Weekly economic indicators (Lewis-Mertens-Stock/New York Fed) to 29 July showed growth of 1.75% y/y (fred link).
