Non-farm payrolls grew far more than expected, at 339,000 and 180,000 respectively. Based on SPGMI’s April monthly GDP, we have the following NBER BCDC indicator graph (along with monthly GDP):
figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg 6/1 consensus (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding 2012 China transfers (green), manufacturing and Trade Sales Ch.2012 USD (black), Ch.2012 USD Consumption (light blue) and Ch.2012 USD Monthly GDP (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. The Bloomberg consensus level is calculated by adding the forecast change to the previously unrevised level of available employment at the time of the forecast. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q1 Second Edition via FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (6/1/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
The latest non-farm payrolls came in above the implied level, partly due to a surprise job growth and an upward revision to previous months’ levels.
gross domestic product The SAAR for the second quarter (released today) was 2.0%. As such, GDP growth appears to be maintaining momentum.However, as in this postother indicators of aggregate output showed a horizontal or downward trend.
