For September’s IHS-Markit (macroeconomic advisor) monthly GDP, we have below a picture of some of the key metrics followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls (dark blue), Bloomberg as of 10/4 for NFP (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding 2012 transfers (green), manufacturing and Trade consensus 2012 dollar sales (black), 2012 dollar consumption (light blue), 2012 dollar monthly GDP (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. The lilac shading indicates dates associated with the H1 hypothetical recession. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (published October 4, 2022), and author’s calculations.
Note that monthly GDP rose sharply in September.from IHS-Markit:
GDP rose 0.8% on a monthly basis in August, following a 0.2% increase in July. The latter was revised down by 0.2 percentage points. The increase in August was due to large increases in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports.Final sales to domestic buyers were
It was basically flat in August. August’s sharp increase in inventory investment may reverse in September, as inventory (excluding autos and parts) is already somewhat over-stocked heading into August, by our estimates
There appear to be differences in GDP and other metrics; however, if we look at GDO, they appear to be more consistent.
figure 2: Nonfarm Employment (Dark Blue), Bloomberg 10/14 Consensus (Blue+), Residential Employment (Orange), Industrial Production (Red), 2012 Excludes Transferred Personal Income (Green), Manufacturing and Trade Sales. 2012 $ (black), 2012 consumption (light blue) and 2012 monthly GDP (pink), GDP, GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. The lilac shading indicates dates associated with the H1 hypothetical recession. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (published October 4, 2022), and author’s calculations.
For more discussion on GDP vs GDO and other related indicators, see here postal From the beginning of the month, discuss the annual revision of GDP, here.
With consumption, employment and production indicators rising and GDO trending sideways in the first half, it seems unlikely that the first half will be declared a recession, a broad-based and sustained decline in economic activity.
