With industrial production on the horizon, we have a picture below of some of the key business cycle indicators that NBER BCDC follows. Also includes GDPNow as of today.
figure 1: Non-farm payrolls, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in China 2012 (green), manufacturing and trade sales in China 2012 (black), Consumption of Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP of Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bar), 2023Q1 is 6/15 of GDPNow, all log normalized to 2023M01=0. The Bloomberg consensus level is calculated by adding the forecast change to the previously unrevised level of available employment at the time of the forecast. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q1 Second Edition via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (6/1/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
