Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell, while prior months were revised down. Below is a picture of the key indicators that NBER BCDC follows along with the monthly GDP (SPGMI).
figure 1: Non-farm employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2012 personal income excluding transfers (green), 2012 manufacturing and trade sales $ (black), 2012 consumption Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP for Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), GDPNow for Q2 2023 at 7/6, all log normalized to 2021M11=0. The Bloomberg consensus level is calculated by adding the forecast change to the previous unrevised level of available employment at the time of the forecast. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q1 Release 3 (via FRED), atlanta fed, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigeria Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (7/3/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
