22 million.
This is the number of ballots that went out before the August 16 deadline and reached California voters last weekend. Gavin Newson
And with questions Newsom recalls the power of movement, The fact that every voter in the dark blue state will receive a ballot mailed to them may ultimately save him.
Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist in Los Angeles, said: “It allows you to complete the voting within a month, and traditionally communities of color always vote on election day.” Weekly newspaper“It is always white people who use this system for absentee ballots, but it has never penetrated into our most economically disadvantaged people to do the same thing.”
A Democratic pollster also told Weekly newspaper This system provides an advantage for Newsom Joe Biden beat Donald Trump 29 percentage points and 5 million votes.
The source said: “If you let people drive to the polling station to vote as they please, you will only get super dedicated people.” “Because Republicans Is trying to remember, Democratic Party Not enthusiastic. But by making voting easier, you can better reflect the status of registered voters. “
Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images
For voters who have had recent mail voting experience in November, there are now fewer obstacles.
Trujillo added: “Voters of color always look for cars, fill out a postcard a few months in advance, and ask the group to send them back in their own handwriting, inviting them to vote.” Recruit neighbors who speak the same language to drive people out of their homes to vote.”
He pointed out that voters now have 28 days to fill in their ballots on the kitchen table, “and the postage is free.”
“If there is a glimmer of hope for the Newsom team, it is,” he said.
At the time of writing, according to the PDI tracker, 5% of the mailed votes have been returned, showing that the Democrats have returned 604,981 votes, the Republicans have returned 236,038, and the independents have returned 236,002.
However, although Republicans agree that California is a difficult state to win, they do not necessarily admit that the universal mail ballot will give Newsom a smooth victory.
Brian Lanza, an informal adviser to Larry Elder, the top Republican told Weekly newspaper Even his “liberal” mother voted to remove Newsom.
He said California had a “strong” absenteeism system before general mail voting, but the return rate was still only 50%. But Lanza criticized the ability of the Democratic Party and progressive groups to help voters fill out but not sent ballots.
He called it ballot collection.
Lanza said: “The Democratic Party has the ability to vote and gain. This is largely a structural advantage, but in the final analysis, voters must love the people they vote for, and no one loves Gavin.”
But the Republican chairman recently stated that her party did the same-because it worked.
California Republican Party Chairman Jessica Millan Patterson called the collection of votes “our number one priority.” She told Politico, “This is what we have been training volunteers for the past two and a half years. Thing.”
But for the Newsom campaign, this is not about vote collection, but about “vote chasing.”
Campaign officials told Weekly newspaper Their vote-chase plan is crucial in all-mail elections. Campaign manager Juan Rodriguez said that they viewed the campaign as a 29-day marathon, “when they return their votes, they can track it at the county level”.
In addition to knocking on the door, the event sent 17 million text messages and ensured that they contacted everyone by phone.
Democratic opinion poll experts said: “If everyone with a vote receives a text message, if they chase votes, then this strategy will work.”
Nonetheless, Democrats know that even after the historic turnout in the November 2020 presidential election, it is not easy to make voters who are accustomed to voting in person become unanimous mail voters.
“Will this translate into a special election in mid-2021?” Trujillo asked. “It remains to be seen.”
He said that there is not enough history to predict the future.
Trujillo said: “We only have one election to study. There is not enough data to know whether we can create a permanent Democratic behemoth, which requires at least three elections.” “If you are the Newsom team, it is you. The Rubik’s Cube that needs to be solved.”
At the same time, the polling agency said that the 2021 election was very different from 2003, when Arnold Schwarzenegger’s candidacy created a circus that everyone was talking about.
“It’s ridiculous, and that’s why it’s so exciting,” the source said. “Everyone is talking about it non-stop.”
Democrats who talked to them Weekly newspaper Said Newsom’s doomsday prophets were “over-vigilant,” but their important purpose was to get his campaign to begin.
However, no matter who wins the recall election, the next primary election will be held in June 2022. Some Democrats believe that Newsom does not have to win an impressive victory, he just needs to win.
“He should save some money for 2022,” the opinion poll expert said. “Do you need to win 30 or can you win 7? You don’t have to win 30, you just need to beat the recall.”
