a dissertation Hansen et al. (2023) Summarizes Congressional Budget Office projections for US health insurance coverage from 2023 to 2033. They found that low uninsured rates due to regulations to combat COVID-19 will not persist as these regulations expire:
Temporary policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic increased Medicaid and nongroup coverage and reduced the number of uninsured. The CBO estimates that the uninsured rate will reach an all-time low of 8.3% this year as overall enrollment increases continue through 2023. After the temporary insurance policy expires in 2033, the insurance coverage rate of the most affected by the temporary insurance policy will decline, and the uninsured rate will rise to 10.1%
Note that this 10.1% rate, while higher than the current uninsured level, is still lower than the 12% uninsured level in 2019.
Of the 76.6 million people enrolled in Medicaid in early 2023, about 80% will remain on Medicaid, 12% will transition to private (employer or non-group coverage), and 8% will be uninsured.
The article also provides a more detailed overview of health insurance coverage in the United States. While most people 65 and older are covered by Medicare, the type of coverage people under 65 get varies by income. Low-income individuals are more likely to be on Medicaid; higher-income individuals are more likely to enroll in employer-sponsored insurance plans.
The CBO also expects private health insurance premiums to rise.
The CBO projects that spending by private health insurers on private health insurance premiums per enrollee (reflecting claims and administrative costs paid) will grow by 6.5% in 2023 and by an average of 5.9% in 2024-25, at Average growth of 5.7% in 2024-25, 4.6% in 2026-27 and 4.6% in 2028-33…higher short-term growth partly reflects pressure on healthcare spending from the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic Horizontal bounce 2020.
For more details, you can read the full text here.
