One e-book Contributions by Torbjörn Becker, Barry Eichengreen, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Sergei Guriev, Simon Johnson, Tymofiy Mylovanov, Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth Rogoff, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
resource: War Institute, accessed 21 August 2022.
resource: Trade and Economic Network
resource: Trade and Economic Network
resource: Trade and Economic Network
resource: Trade and Economic Network
From executive summary to Book:
For more than 160 days, Ukraine has resisted Russian aggression. The prospect of a protracted war is growing, a prospect that requires a recalibration of the country’s macroeconomic strategy. Specifically, the current policy mix that relies on temporary measures such as reducing foreign exchange reserves is gradually becoming untenable. Unless changed, this course will lead to a major economic crisis that will cripple Ukraine’s ability to sustain its war effort.
an extended period. This report outlines the macroeconomic policies that put the economy on a sustainable trajectory during the war.Our recommendations are based on four key elements.
First, the government must mobilize more resources to improve its fiscal position so that the nation can fund massive military spending and maintain basic public services in a war-torn economy. The aim should be to increase tax collection, with the remaining shortfall being filled mainly by non-monetary means: preferably through external aid, but if not, through domestic debt issuance,…
Second, there is an urgent need for a durable nominal anchor. …in coordination with fiscal authorities, central banks should implement flexible frameworks to support macroeconomic stability. Managed exchange rate fluctuations are consistent with this objective.
Third, external imbalances should be addressed through strict capital outflow controls, import restrictions, and some exchange rate flexibility to avoid jeopardizing internal macroeconomic stability in the face of huge fiscal demands. A complete cessation of foreign debt payments is crucial.
Fourth, while wartime governments often take over resource allocation, the situation in Ukraine requires more market-based allocation mechanisms to ensure cost-effective solutions that do not overburden state capacity, exacerbate existing problems (such as corruption) or Encourage (tax-exempt) black market activity. …
