Opinions about the U.S. recession earlier this year (e.g., the observer less than a month ago), CFNA Have the following needs:
The three-month moving average of the CFNAI fell below zero (ie, below trend growth) in May and June.This CFNAI Notes states that “after a period of economic expansion, an increase in the probability of a recession has historically been associated with CFNAI-MA3 values below –0.70.” CFNAI-MA3 does not cross this threshold.
As for the indications from the number of indicators falling or rising (i.e. the diffusion index), we have the following graph.
From the notes:
Therefore, I (still) don’t see a recession in the first half of 2022.