Marlon Meyer
Northwest Asia Weekly
A leading scholar in the field of international studies said the Ukraine war is shaking the Chinese leadership’s confidence in its own military buildup, threatening its geopolitical ambitions, and even shaking its political power base.
David Bachman
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine is bad for China, and it could get worse,” said David Bachman, a professor at UW’s Henry M. Jackson School who specializes in Chinese domestic and foreign policy. Bachman), International Political Economy, Asian Politics, International Relations, and U.S.-China Relations.
The faltering war effort has alarmed President Xi Jinping and others, leading to a recognition of the disastrous situation China is in, Bachman said on a March 15 panel co-hosted by the Washington State Council on China Relations.
Among other consequences, the poor performance of the Russian military has led to a reassessment of China’s decades-long military modernization, which is largely modeled on Russia, Bachmann said.
“Nobody, including Xi Jinping, expected the Russian military to perform so badly,” he said. “From a Chinese perspective, this is what a modern military looks like.”
The failure of Russian troops to quickly resolve Ukrainian resistance has undermined not only Chinese confidence in Russia, but also China’s confidence in Russia.
“This is also the modern military practiced by the Chinese military, because the Chinese military has not participated in modern military operations for many, many years,” Bachman said.
He added, “China also buys Russian weapons. Aren’t they great? What does that mean for China’s defense buildup? I think it raises real questions in the military leadership and in China’s military defense complex.”
China is also alarmed by Russia’s demands for military and other supplies.
“The fact that the Russians feel the need to ask China for equipment shows how poorly equipped and prepared the Russians are to the Ukrainians, raising doubts about Russia’s overall military and other capabilities,” Bachman said. “So, have you connected yourself with Shen Chuan?”
The Chinese leadership suddenly realized that it had grossly underestimated the speed and unity with which the West could unite against Russian aggression.
“It is also shocking that NATO seems to have quickly found a new sense of purpose and has positioned Ukraine as a conflict between autonomy and democracy,” Bachmann said. “More importantly, the EU, NATO and others see this as not only Limited to Russia. China policy is being reconsidered and may be strengthened.”
Even more shocking is the “broadness, depth and severity of sanctions” imposed on Russia, especially the freezing of foreign exchange reserves.
“All told, Russia has about $64 billion in foreign exchange. China has $3.25 trillion, of which $1.06 trillion is in the U.S. Treasury,” Bachman said. “So China has more to lose and it’s now worried about where its money is and what might happen to it.”
It comes at a time when China’s economy is suffering a severe slowdown and the country faces its worst COVID-19 outbreak since early 2020, raising questions about the government’s fundamental approach to the pandemic — the “dynamic zero” coronavirus strategy.
At the same time, the voices of influential academics and others are emerging to challenge Chinese support for Putin’s war, and there are signs that Xi’s leadership is being subtly challenged.
“They’re not really detectable on any tangible level, but they’re clearly growing,” Bachmann said.
Finally, China realizes that it may face increasingly tough opposition in Asia, which is likely to delay its hopes of conquering Taiwan.
With the election of a pro-U.S. president in South Korea and the strengthening of U.S. security ties with Japan and Australia, China fears that a NATO-like alliance could emerge — or even that NATO itself could expand into Asia by opposing war.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spent an hour and a half complaining about the unforeseen event during the National People’s Congress earlier this month.
Bachman said he and the Chinese government were concerned that such a security structure “would apply to Taiwan.”
“Therefore, Taiwan is the beneficiary of this war in important respects, and it may be one of the only beneficiaries,” Bachman said.
At the same time, U.S. support for Taiwan is higher than in 40 years, when the U.S. severed ties with the Taiwanese government. Meanwhile, Congress has shown growing support for Taiwan, including a ban on maps that list Taiwan as part of China, a highly sensitive issue for Beijing.
Both the quality and quantity of weapons sold to Taiwan will likely increase, and training between Taiwanese troops and U.S. or other allied forces will likely be more open, Bachman said.
Earlier this month, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Taiwan to call on the U.S. government to formally recognize Taiwan as a country, a move that, if taken, could be seen as a pretext for China to wage war.
“I think it would be quite a shock to China that the United States would increase the level of support for Taiwan,” Bachman said.
As for news reports that some Chinese believe their country will be the sole victor of the war, Bachmann called it “wishful thinking” because of the lack of information, a byproduct of the government’s strict control of the Internet, the media. , and education.
This thinking underestimates many realities of the changing geopolitical order and the “possibility that China will be subject to secondary or even primary sanctions” if it aids the Russian invasion.
Such sanctions could include technology and the same financial measures taken against Russia, Bachmann said.
Nelson Dong
But he warned that China’s response would be to punish the United States, including cutting off medicines, personal protective equipment and electronics such as iPhones and iPads.
Nelson Dong, an attorney specializing in export controls, economic sanctions, national security, and international trade and investment, who moderated the panel, said: “The U.S. does have considerable influence, but at a very, very high price. “
Mahlon can be contacted by info@nwasianweekly.com.
