Flash estimates using Eurozone HICP. US inflation m/m , q/q fell:
figure 1: US monthly/monthly annualized CPI headlines (black), HICP headlines (grey), Eurozone (turquoise). Eurozone July is a preliminary estimate. HICP was seasonally adjusted using the X-13 log transformation. The NBER uses shades of gray to define the peak and trough dates of the recession. Sources: BLS, EuroStat, via FRED, and author’s calculations.
The same goes for 3-month changes using monthly data.
figure 2: US q/q annualized CPI headlines (black), HICP headlines (grey), Eurozone (turquoise). Eurozone July is a preliminary estimate. HICP was seasonally adjusted using the X-13 log transformation. The NBER uses shades of gray to define the peak and trough dates of the recession. Sources: BLS, EuroStat, via FRED, and author’s calculations.
This is the month-to-month annualized difference between US CPI and EA HICP.
image 3: Annualized overall difference in m/m for the US_Euro region (black). Eurozone July is a preliminary estimate. HICP was seasonally adjusted using the X-13 log transformation. The NBER uses shades of gray to define the peak and trough dates of the recession. Sources: BLS, EuroStat, via FRED, and author’s calculations.
While overall rates have converged, core differences will tell a different story. Energy is a bigger part of headlines in the euro zone. This disparity is expected to continue as long as energy (especially natural gas) prices remain high relative to the U.S.
