a year ago(7/29):
figure 1: The number of weekly deaths (black) and excess deaths due to Covid-19 reported to the CDC within a few weeks of the end of the specified date is calculated as the actual minus the expected number (cyan), the number of deaths listed by the Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic (deep Red), IHME forecast (red light). source: CDC 7/29/2020 Retro, Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic Visited on July 29, 2020, IHME forecast July 22, 2020, and the author’s calculations.
And today (7/24):
figure 2: The number of deaths per week due to Covid-19 (black) and excess deaths reported to the CDC within a few weeks of the end of the specified date is calculated as the actual minus the expected number (cyan) and the number of deaths in our world data list (dark red) ), IHME forecast (rough pink)). As the CDC pointed out, the light green shading indicates that the CDC data may be modified. source: CDC Visited on July 24, 2021, Our data world, Visited on July 24, 2021, IHME forecast July 22, 2020, July 23, 2021, and author’s calculations.
IHME does a good job of predicting the number of excess deaths (contrary to the number of Covid-19 deaths officially designated by the CDC or the number of deaths reported to our world data). The current IHME reference scenario forecast means that there will be approximately 60,000 deaths by November 1.This wave doesn’t seem to be that bad-unless you consider that this is happening In summer, When people are unlikely to enter the room and make close contact.
For the confidence intervals of the reference scenario and the “worse” scenario and the geographic distribution of deaths, please refer to this Post earlier today.
