interesting paper from Ziedan, Simon and Wing (2023):
The contraction in health care consumption at the onset of the pandemic provides insight into the core economic issues of waste and productivity in the U.S. health care system. Using linked mortality rates and electronic medical records, we compared people who scheduled outpatient appointments in the 30 days before and after a Covid-19 emergency declaration. For those who had an appointment during the shutdown, the cancellation rate was 77 percent higher. Intention-to-treat estimates imply that scheduling an appointment date immediately after declaring an emergency increases one-year mortality by 4 per 10,000. The instrumental variable estimates indicated that cancellations of appointments increased the one-year mortality rate per 10,000 persons in compliance by 29.7, implying that a 10% increase in health care appointments resulted in a 2.9% reduction in mortality. Mortality effects arise from two mechanisms: a subgroup of adherents who derive a high marginal benefit from care, and a cascade of delayed or missed follow-up care lasting about 3 months. In 2021, medical expenditure will account for 19.7% of the US GDP, and controlling medical expenditure is the main policy goal. Our results quantify health trade-offs by reducing daily non-emergency doctor visits, illustrating the importance of cost-containment efforts that distinguish between health care with the greatest and least benefit to patient health.
Also in the NBER Health Bulletin, Acton et al. (2022) Discover:
…college vaccinations resulted in 339 fewer new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 county residents and 5.4 fewer new deaths per 100,000 residents, with an estimated value of saved lives ranging from $9.7 million to $27.4 million per 100,000 residents between. These numbers suggest that these mandates reduce total U.S. COVID-19 deaths by about 5% in fall 2021.
Complete NBER health bulletin yes here.
