Posted in the May/June 2022 issue – As the war in Ukraine continues, Russia’s military capabilities may be affected. Increased economic and industrial pressure through ever-increasing international sanctions will mean that sources of critical components needed to build complex weapons and platforms are increasingly difficult to obtain.
While many large international companies in the Indo-Pacific based in Europe or the United States have withdrawn from the Russian market, many Asian companies are maintaining exports. But with the Ukrainian government controlling Kyiv and much of the country, companies will be urged to cut ties with Russia.
On April 26, Chinese drone maker DJI announced in a rare three-line statement that it “will suspend all business activities in Russia and Ukraine after Kyiv complained that the company’s products were used in Russian military operations. “.
In March, South Korean communications giants Samsung and LG, as well as Japanese companies Toyota and electronics company Panasonic, publicly announced they would stop trade with Russia.
This is important. The impact of the loss of supply of electronic and mechanical products will seriously damage Russia’s ability to produce weapons, especially guided weapons.In its recent report on the Russian-Ukrainian war, titled Operation Z: The Dying Struggles of Imperial DelusionsThe Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based think tank, said Russia’s cruise and ballistic missile capabilities were key to its war effort in Ukraine.
But Russia will struggle to maintain its stockpiles of precision munitions because the weapons “rely heavily rely on key specialized components made abroad,” the report said. Unable to produce new weapons to replenish stockpiles, Russia is reluctant to use weapons such as ballistic missiles such as the Iskander-M on a large scale in Ukraine because it needs them in case of a wider war with NATO. Instead, Russia is using a range of other, less suitable weapons for long-range strikes and other missions.
The report cites field investigations by RUSI and the Central Armament Science Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which found that the 9M727 cruise missile launched from Iskander-K used a special computer with powerful components to withstand missile flight pressure. The computer receives data from the sensors to control the flight of the missile. However, RUSI says that six of the seven sockets used to transmit data are made in the United States. Also, the rails that connect the board to the computer case and the board itself are from the US.
The report said there was a “similar pattern” in Russia’s equipment mix. “Almost all modern Russian military hardware relies on sophisticated electronics imported from the US, UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, Israel, China and further afield,” it added.
Other examples cited include Russia’s 9M949 300mm guided rocket, which uses a US-made fiber-optic gyroscope as an inertial navigation system, and the TOR M2 air defense system, which uses a UK-sourced oscillator for radar control. At the same time, the Iskander-M, the Kalibr cruise missile, the Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile, and the Aqueduct series of Russian military radios (R-168-5UN-2, R-168-5UN-1 and R-168-5UT-2 ) includes “critical electronic components manufactured in the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, South Korea and Japan”.
Anastasia Kapetas, Editor of National Security Magazine strategist Australian think tank Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) told AMR Cutting the supply of semiconductor chips “would be catastrophic” for everything Russia might want to deploy militarily, including the Orion drone, fifth-generation Sukhoi fighter jet and Armata tank.
Semiconductors are used to make most of the military equipment used in communications, data storage and processing, automotive systems, industrial electronics, and even satellites.
“If you can’t get chips, you can’t launch satellites,” Karpetas said. Russia has a GLONASS constellation similar to US GPS satellites. “At this level [the Russian Army’s] Basic navigational capabilities could be affected – from field communications between different units to the missile’s ability to find its target. This can degrade quickly, which is really bad news. “
Russia relies heavily on imported semiconductors, especially TSMC, which has suspended shipments to Russia. Taiwan dominates the semiconductor market with a 60% market share, with TSMC accounting for more than 50% and Taiwan’s UMC (UMC) accounting for about 7%. Samsung Electronics came in second with about 18 percent, with US firm Global Foundries vying for the third and fourth spots, while UMC also came in second with about 7 percent.
Production of the replica chip system is “extremely difficult”, Kapetas said, creating “big problems” for Russia in securing supply. Attempts by Moscow to develop microprocessor manufacturing facilities through the companies Elbrus and Baikal Electronics under its import substitution policy are negligible.
However, China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is still exporting to Russia in defiance of U.S. sanctions, according to a list of companies issued by the Yale School of Management. SMIC is trying to replicate TSMC, but with China prioritizing its own needs due to a global semiconductor supply shortage, it is unclear whether they have exported semiconductors to Russia.
“The U.S. is taking semiconductors and Russia seriously. If the U.S. finds out that SMIC is exporting to Russia, it will definitely sanction them, and the company will lose what it needs to gain access to U.S. technology, industrial partnerships, and actually produce its own products from the U.S. and Taiwan. resources,” Karpetas said.
by Tim Fish
