This is a word from Mr. steven corbett, why the CES survey shows so much optimism for NFP growth. The statement joins a long list of such allegations, such as, Senator Barrasso, Jack Welch, former congressman allen west, zero hedge, Mick Mulvaney,etc. All I can say is (1) if there is a conspiracy, they’re not doing it right, or (2) it’s such a huge conspiracy that it includes not only the other offices of the BLS, but the ADP .
figure 1: Private nonfarm payrolls, change in privately covered employment from January 2022, BLS October release (blue), ADP October release (tan), and privately covered employment in Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, by authors using X-13 (green ) seasonally adjusted. Sources: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS (QCEW) and authors’ calculations.
The BLS and ADP series released in October were known ahead of the Nov. 8 election date. At that time the QCEW series was not known until 2022M03.
In both cases, according to BLS CES, the cumulative change in employment will be lower than QCEW (if anyone is watching) and certainly lower than ADP.
But, maybe “they” got into ADP too…
