The latest data shows that business air travel will drop by 3.9 million in 2023 compared with 2019
This week I attended an event in Parliament hosted by the aviation industry, aiming to persuade the next UK Government Number“The sector plays a vital role in supporting economic growth”. The decline in business air travel weakens their argument.
new data Figures released by the Office for National Statistics last week highlighted the problems with claims in the aviation industry. The 2023 data provide a useful benchmark because the size of the economy at that time (even accounting for inflation) was about 1.8% larger than before the pandemic (2019). This means the recovery is complete. All things being equal, we expect business use of air travel to pick up. In fact, we can probably expect a good year for business travel as companies catch up on travel that was not possible under COVID restrictions, unleashing pent-up demand. No such recovery has ever occurred.
In fact, air travel for business purposes fell by 3.9 million in 2023, down 29% since 2019. This new data highlights the acceleration of pre-existing trends, such as NEF last year's reportof Number'Business air travel is decoupled from the economy.
The chart below shows that corporate air travel per million pounds of real GDP has fallen steadily from a peak of around 8 flights per million pounds in 2000, but fell to a new low of just 4 flights per million pounds after the outbreak . Airline executives are well aware of this phenomenon and are indeed already adjusting their strategies. business strategy So that hasn't stopped the industry, and airports in particular, from making grossly exaggerated claims about the commercial benefits of air travel growth and airport expansion in particular.
Figure 1: Business air travel per million pounds of GDP has fallen since the pandemic
Interestingly, new polling data shows it's not just me who is skeptical of the industry's claims. So does the public. recent votes “More in Common” conducted a survey in six Western European countries, including the United Kingdom, and analyzed it by NEF. The results showed that among those who expressed their opinions, as many as 74% were more likely to think that Number““The economy can grow without people needing to fly more”, compared to only 26% who prefer flying Number“vital to economic growth”. Interestingly, even those who fly for business are not convinced, with 60% leaning towards the idea that the economy can grow without people flying more. Perhaps most tellingly, only 19% of business travelers said Number'If they don't fly again in the next 5 years Number'limiting their ability to do their jobs properly” – this is not an explicit endorsement of the importance of air travel to business.
The trend away from business air travel is at least partial (although Not strong) is driven by environmental concerns and responsible business. Nonetheless, stronger government action is needed to address the aviation industry’s large environmental footprint.
NEF has been committed to Frequent flyer tax As a means to fairly address aviation’s climate impact. People think this policy is fair, with 47% supporting it Number'Compare that to just 20% who think it's “very or somewhat fair” Number'Extremely or somewhat unfair.” Many business travelers are among the most common people to fly, but interestingly our poll analysis shows that this group is more likely than average to think the policy is fair, with 52% saying it is fair Number'“Very or somewhat fair” compared to 22% Number'Extremely or somewhat unfair.”
Frequent flyer levy
|
business travelers |
all |
|
|
very or somewhat fair |
52% |
47% |
|
Very or somewhat unfair |
twenty two% |
20% |
|
neither fair nor unfair |
twenty one% |
21.8% |
Source: NEF analysis of the More in Common poll
Whichever party forms the next UK government, sooner or later the climate damage caused by air travel will have to be reckoned with. The incremental steps companies are taking to move away from their reliance on scheduled flights will make this job easier, demonstrating that a rapid green transition can be achieved in a way that is also very beneficial to the health of the economy and society. Charting the right course through fair and effective policymaking necessarily means resisting industry propaganda and vested interests.
Picture: iStock
