The FT-IGM investigation has ended (it was conducted over the weekend).Summary of results here, with Financial Times The article is here (gated). These are some results.
For GDP, assuming that Q4 is consistent with the forecast in the November survey of professional forecasters, we have the following figure.
figure 1: GDP (black), potential GDP (grey), November professional forecaster survey (red), November SPF minus 1.5 percentage points in the first quarter, second quarter minus 05 percentage points (blue-green), FT-IGM 12 Monthly surveys (blue-green squares) are all on a logarithmic scale. The FT-IGM GDP level assumes that the growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2021 is equal to the SPF November forecast. NBER-defined recession dates are shaded gray from peak to trough. Source: BEA 2021Q3 Second Edition, Philadelphia Fed November SPF, FT-IGM December survey, And the author’s calculations.
In the figure above, I used the 4.6% SAAR SPF forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021; this Atlanta Fed Nowcast As of yesterday (December 7), the SAAR was 8.6%. There will be a new nowcast tomorrow.
Interestingly, the median forecasted growth for Q4/Q4 is equal to what was implied by the November survey of professional forecasters (a survey conducted nearly a month before the omicron variant news was released).
The forecast distribution for the fourth quarter/fourth quarter of 2022 is skewed, with the 90th percentage point being 5%, the 10th percentage point being 2.5%, and the median being 3.5%. I showed the corresponding implied level of GDP (again assuming that 2021Q4 growth is equal to SPF).
figure 2: GDP (black), November professional forecaster survey (red), FT-IGM December survey (cyan square), 90th percentile and 10th percentile implied levels (blue +), My forecast median (green triangle), all on a logarithmic scale. The FT-IGM GDP level assumes that the growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2021 is equal to the SPF November forecast. NBER-defined recession dates are shaded gray from peak to trough. Source: BEA 2021Q3 Second Edition, Philadelphia Fed November SPF, FT-IGM December survey, And the author’s calculations.
In terms of the unemployment rate, the median forecast is that the recovery will slow down.
image 3: Unemployment rate (black), November professional forecaster survey (red), FT-IGM December survey (cyan square), 90th percentile and 10th percentile implied levels (blue +) , My forecast median (green triangle). NBER-defined recession dates are shaded gray from peak to trough. Source: BEA 2021Q3 Second Edition, Philadelphia Fed November SPF, FT-IGM December survey, And the author’s calculations.
Survey respondents also believe that it will take a long time for the participation rate to return to pre-pandemic levels.
source: FT-IGM, December 2021 survey.
In terms of inflation, the median is higher than the November SPF mean The estimate for 2022 is 2.3% (and Goldman Sachs’ current estimate).
source: FT-IGM, December 2021 survey.
The whole survey result is here.
