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Delta variables and prospects for economic activity


From Washington post:

Rochelle Varensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Friday that this unusually contagious variant of the delta coronavirus, first discovered in India, may become the main strain in the United States this summer.

The President stated that it is unlikely to implement a new blockade, but even without new federal measures, risk aversion by vulnerable groups may slow down economic activities. (Of course, those who actively resist vaccination may not avoid risks and just continue their business to mitigate this impact). Because vaccination rates are variable, the impact may be geographically concentrated.

As Ashish Jha, Dean of the Brown School of Public Health, said right now:

“People who have been vaccinated can still resist this mutation well,” Dr. Jha said, “but it is a mutation that requires a high degree of immunity to resist, so you really need to get two doses of the vaccine at the same time.”

Below, I show a map of the complete vaccination rate.

source: Mayo Clinic.

The full vaccination rate in yellow states is less than 40%. As described in this article, even if the vaccination rate is higher than 40%, the number of cases will surge (Just like Kansas, except Missouri).

These vaccinated states with less than 40% of the population accounted for 28.6% of total US GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019 (the peak quarter of the NBER business cycle).

Update, June 21, 3:45 PM Pacific Time:

More from Bloomberg on Gamma and Delta variants, And spread rapidly in counties with insufficient vaccination.



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