Official, chained, sticky prices, 16% trim and (March) PCE deflator.
figure 1: CPI month-on-month inflation (blue), chained CPI (brown), 16% adjusted CPI inflation (red), sticky price CPI inflation (green), PCE deflator (black), all in decimal form (i.e. , 0.05 means 5%). Seasonally adjusted chained CPI using Geometric Census X12 (brown). NBER-defined recession dates (peaks and valleys) shades of gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Note that adjusted and sticky-price CPI inflation has not been that important over the past few months. The trim < title suggests that price increases are concentrated in certain categories. Stick < title indicates that flexible pricing is doing most of the price changes.
For core measures:
figure 2: Chain inflation of core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (brown), sticky price core CPI inflation (green), personal consumption expenditures core deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (ie 0.05 means 5%) . Seasonally adjusted chained CPI using Geometric Census X12 (brown). NBER-defined recession dates (peaks and valleys) shades of gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
The fact that sticky price core inflation is roughly the same as core inflation suggests that energy and food are the main drivers of the overall price level increase.
more in CEA. Calculated Risk Discussion here and here. see also Jason Furman.
