Industrial production and manufacturing production beat expectations, with key indicators in the chart below.
figure 1: Non-farm employment (dark blue bold), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2012 personal income excluding transfers (green), 2012 manufacturing and trade sales (black), consumption Ch.2012$ (light blue), and Ch. 2012$ (pink) monthly GDP, official GDP, 2022Q2 ahead (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (published August 1, 2022), NBER, and author’s calculations.
In addition to the official BEA GDP and IHS Markit’s monthly GDP (not currently on the list), these six plotted series are those of interest to the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Of the six key items, non-farm employment (blacks) and personal income are given greater weight after transfers.
