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Economic cycle indicators for early February 2024

NFP employment growth in January was surprising (to say the least), +353 and +187 consensus.back Monthly GDP and Q1 Live Forecastthe economy appears to be continuing to grow rapidly.

figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls including baseline revisions (bold dark blue), implied levels using Bloomberg consensus as of February 1 and December 2023 NFP (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial Production (red), China’s personal income excluding current transfers in 2017$ (bold green), Manufacturing and trade sales in 2017$ (black), Consumption$ in 2017 (light blue), and 2017$ Monthly GDP $ (pink), GDP, third release (blue bar), Q1 2024 GDPNow as of February 1 (lilac box), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd Edition, contains comprehensive revisions, S&P Global Market Insights (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (2/1/Published in 2024) and the author's calculations.

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