Below are data from around 2001, including GDP, employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade industry sales, and personal income.Note: There are no consecutive quarters of negative growth, such as Chris Cillizza Rules.
figure 1: 2012 GDP USD SAAR (blue bar), nonfarm payrolls (blue line), industrial production (tan), personal income excluding current transfers, 2012 USD (green), manufacturing and trade sector sales, 2012 Year USD (red), latest year for all series. Macroeconomic advisors monthly GDP (pink), civil employment (chartreuse), expressed in logarithm, 2001M03=0. The NBER uses shades of grey to define the peak and trough dates of the recession. Sources: BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve, Census All from FRED, IHS Markit, NBER, and authors’ calculations.
Using the second quarter rule, Go ahead, There was no recession of 2001.
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