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Employment release and business cycle indicators

850K is today’s headline NFP number. Just a reminder, although the rise was unexpected (150,000 higher than the Bloomberg consensus yesterday), the number of employed people still fell by 4.4% compared to the peak NBER.

figure 1: The number of non-agricultural employment released in June (dark blue), Bloomberg as of July 1 unanimously agreed on the number of non-agricultural employment in June (light blue +), industrial production (red), excluding 2012 Ch.2012 Trade sales of $ (black), consumption of Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP of Ch.2012$ (pink), all logarithms are normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, calculated by FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (released 7/1/2021), NBER and author.

This A blog post a few days ago discussed how to explain these highly volatile employment figures in such a turbulent era.

Indeed, the bifurcated nature of the labor market recovery is waning, albeit slowly.

figure 2: The number of employees in the manufacturing industry (blue) and the accommodation and food service industry (brown) are in thousands, sa Source: BLS.

Jason Furman and Wilson Powell Discuss the news from the posted employment situation.

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