Excerpt from employment status release:
figure 1: Nonfarm employment (blue), the NFP early benchmark (tan), and CPS employment adjusted for NFP concepts (green) are all around 1,000. The Philadelphia Fed NFP early benchmark is calculated by taking the ratio of the early benchmark state level sum to the ex post benchmark state level sum to the CES national level NFP. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and author's calculations.
figure 2: Private nonfarm employment from CES (blue), ADP (green), and total private nonfarm weekly hours (tan), all in logarithmic form, November 2021 = 0. Source: BLS, ADP, via FRED.
image 3: Private nonfarm average hourly earnings (black), Bloomberg consensus year-over-year (light blue squares) and CPI (dark red), all = 0 in November 2021. April CPI is based on the Cleveland Fed's 5/3 immediate forecast. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and author's calculations.
Figure 4: Sahm's rule instant indicator (dark blue) and 0.50% threshold (dashed red line). Source: Fred.
