I read an article in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) yesterday (16 January 2022) – i hope germany – It really made me laugh. Ridiculous comedy. It also tells me that European power is firmly opposed to any major progressive change. I thought about it in this blog post last week — Germany’s exit threat relies on ignorance of others reinforced by pro-European progressives (January 11, 2022). I know progressives believe that invoking the Stability and Growth Pact immunity in 2020 as the pandemic unfolds may show that things are changing in Europe after years of austerity bias. But over time, as evidence mounts that the status quo is being brought under control, it won’t be long before we see the familiar narrative of excessive deficits and debt. The latest comes from Austria’s new finance minister, Magnus Brunner, who, according to the FAZ article, completely rejects a debt union and wants to win the backing of the new German government to ensure they hold the fort. Since the new German finance minister has similar or even more extreme persuasive powers about sound finances, I don’t think he will have much trouble convincing the Germans. He also said he wanted to maintain discipline in the euro zone through a coalition of “States of Responsibility”. The short-term fiscal flexibility is coming to an end. Meanwhile, there is a battle for peanuts within the left as the French presidential election looms. The old guard has not fallen.
Conservative austerity groups are organizing
The new Austrian finance minister said the new government’s fiscal approach would be more frugal, contrary to previous statements by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who issued a public inspection of the response to the outbreak.
It plans to withdraw aid in March 2022, as it expects the crisis to ease by then.
He said while some critics of the previous government pointed to wasteful spending, there would be some waste due to the perception that government aid had to be distributed quickly.
Responding to hardline anti-government moralists, he said:
But we should leave the village church
(We should leave the village church!)
This reflects his preference for providing corporate support to keep businesses out of bankruptcy.
But now is the time to pay for support.
He noted that the OECD had started to reduce public debt levels in its latest Economic Outlook – so the organisational structure had not changed much.
Austria’s debt is around 82% of GDP, above the SGP’s 60% threshold.
The new government (ÖVP – Austrian People’s Party) reflects a conservative liberal leaning Christian (Roman Catholic) ideology and has been in power for many years in one coalition or another. It was in opposition from 1970 to 1986, but not in government since 1945.
It reflects the far-right anti-immigrant and Islamic ideology promoted by many of these conservative parties in Europe.
Its economic slogan is a “balanced budget,” and Brenner said the government was committed to restoring it in the medium term once the pandemic eased.
He reiterated Austria’s commitment to the SGP and criticized the current discussions at the European level focusing on loosening fiscal rules. “I think some discussions at the European level are going in the wrong direction.”
It was a direct shot at the so-called Paris-Rome connection.
Instead of relaxing the rules, Brunner claimed:
We must return to the strict rules of sustainable budget policy.
(We have to go back to the strict fiscal rules of sustainable budgeting).
There is no mention of reducing unemployment. His focus is on financial data.
He claims that the countries that have handled the crisis best (Germany and Austria) are those that enforce these strict rules.
He clearly sensed that Paris-Rome relations were becoming influential, so the frugal countries had to lobby together.
That’s why he “hopes that Germany” will show fiscal leadership – along the lines of the CSU/CDU government under Angela Merkel and join Austria in opposing any loosening of fiscal rules.
He doesn’t think the new German government will support the debt union – which is where European debt is issued and permanently transferred to troubled countries.
Interestingly, he linked it to climate policy and shied away from any idea that European debt issued under shared responsibility should be used to develop carbon-reducing energy investments in Europe.
He said:
This is why we reject the current classification scheme for financing energy policy. We cannot take on more debt to support nuclear power.
(We reject current energy policy financing plans. We cannot take on more debt to support nuclear power).
In response to Paris-Rome relations, he claims he is seeking to get the “Frugal Four” (Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Austria) back on the road, despite electoral changes that have taken place since their last early statement amid the pandemic middle.
Now, he claims he wants to form a group within Ecofin (the notorious council of finance ministers), which he calls “responsible states”, who will lobby for a full restoration of fiscal rules.
Who are these states?
Well, he wants the Frugal Four to expand to Finland, then Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Baltic states, in fact, any country committed to fiscal rules.
He was asked about the ECB’s influence in raising interest rates and ending its bond-buying program, which has dampened yields on EMU member countries’ debt.
He is quite uncommitted.
His main policy focus is to lower corporate taxes and implicitly lure companies from higher-tax Germany to the border.
when leftists kill each other
Meanwhile, French presidential elections will be held on April 10, 2022.
This – 2022 French presidential election polls – Funny and frustrating.
Progressive interest groups have a bunch of candidates battling each other over a few percentage points.
As each week passes, it appears that new candidates from the left have joined the fray, the latest being Christian Taubira, the former socialist justice minister.
We now have:
1. Christiane Taubira (Left Radical Party) – Former Minister of Justice.
2. Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise) – keep left.
3. Anne Hidalgo (Socialist Party) – Mayor of Paris.
4. Yannick Jadot (European Ecology) – Green.
5. Fabien Roussel (French Communist Party).
6. Arnaud Montebourg (L’Engagement) – The so-called Miscellaneous Left.
7. Philippe Poutou (New Anti-Capitalist Party) – far left, associated with the coalition
8. Nathalie Arthaud – Labour struggle – left, unions
They fought each other for votes from progressive voters, while right- and center-right candidates were left alone.
inside – polls – Bringing together opinion poll data from all sources, published on January 17, 2022, we learned that:
| candidate | party | January 20, 2021 | January 17, 2022 |
| Emmanuel Macron | Republic in March! | twenty four% | 26% |
| Marine Le Pen | National Rally (right) | 26% | 17% |
| Valerie Peckless | Republican Party (center-right, Liberal Party) | na | 17% |
| Eric Zemour | Reconquest (right wing) | na | 12% |
| Jean-Luc Melenchon | disobedient france | 11% | 10% |
| Yannick Yadot | European Ecology | 7% | 6% |
| Christian Taubira | Left Radical Party | Not applicable | 4% |
| Anne Hidalgo | socialist party | 7% | 3% |
| Fabian Russell | French Communist Party | Not applicable | 2% |
| Nicholas Dupont-Aignan | Stand Up France (Right Gaullist) | 7% | 2% |
| John LaSalle | Let us resist! (center right) | 1% | 1% |
| Philip Putou | New Anti-Capitalist Party (extreme left) | 1% | 1% |
| Florian Philip Potter | Les Patriotes (right-wing, nationalist) | Not applicable% | 1% |
| arnau montburg | L’Engagement (left) | Not applicable | 1% |
| Francois Arcelino | Hard Euroseptic | Not applicable | 1% |
Note: Some other candidates are below 1% – Nathalie Arthaud – Lutte Ouvrière (left); Hélène Thouy – Zoological Party (animal rights).
The same goes for the sum.
Left-wing or left-leaning candidates — seven of them — received no more than 25 percent of the expected votes, and none made it to the second round.
If they all back one person (like the favorite, Jean-Luc Mélenchon), they’ll be ahead of right-wing candidates – Marine Le Pen, Valerie Pecqueres and Eric Zee Moore.
The traditional socialist party has all but disappeared.
So 25% of voters would vote for this tattered left-wing candidate.
Back in the 2012 general election, François Hollande, leader of France’s traditional progressive socialist party, had a good chance of winning government in every election.
Why is his party going backwards so fast?
For the same reasons that Mitterrand’s government fell out of favor in the 1980s.
They have played the neoliberal austerity game to the detriment of the well-being of the workers who elected them.
So while right-wing political forces in Austria are conspiring to strengthen and expand Europe’s austerity alliance, progressive interests in France are failing.
This juxtaposition is happening all over the world.
For example, look at the Biden administration’s dwindling approval ratings and Trump’s rumours of a resurgence.
Lack of action to protect workers will stifle parties that claim to represent them.
in conclusion
This is an unfortunate situation.
Enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2022 William Mitchell. all rights reserved.
