EuroCoin’s October quarter growth rate was -0.67 (q/q). The preliminary forecast for Eurozone third-quarter GDP is -0.1%.
figure 1: Eurozone GDP growth rate (non-AR) (red circle) and EuroCoin (blue line), both q/q (non-AR). source: Bank of Italy.
from CEPR Release:
In October, the euro fell sharply (to -0.67 from -0.18 in September), confirming underlying weakness in economic activity in the euro area.
The decline was due to deterioration in financial, demand and business confidence indicators.The Eurocoin Indicator developed by the Bank of Italy provides an overall index of current economic conditions in the Eurozone. This indicator is an estimate of quarterly GDP growth, excluding the most volatile factors (seasonal changes, measurement errors and short-term fluctuations). €-coin is issued monthly by the Italian Bank and CEPR.
this Cascardi-Garcia/Ferreira/Gianone/Moduño Season 4 Live Forecast Data as of 11/3 is -0.1% q/q (not AR). A survey of professional forecasters in late September/early October put the fourth quarter consensus at +0.1%.
Over the past four quarters, annual growth has been +0.1%. Using this -0.1% immediate forecast and -0.1% Q3 preview means Q4/Q4 growth will be approximately zero.
As in the United States, recessions are usually identified after the peak of the business cycle and are based on variables other than GDP. in this case, CEPR-EABCN Eurozone Business Cycle Dating Committee is the key arbiter.
Narrator: As of today (November 7), the US fourth-quarter GDPNow growth rate is 2.1% SAAR, or about +0.5% q/q (not AR). If the immediate forecast for the fourth quarter holds true, the U.S. growth rate for the fourth quarter/quarter will be 2.8% (!).
