Lightning change Afghanistan Forcing the Biden administration to face the prospect of the revival of Al Qaeda that attacked the United States on September 11, 2001, at the same time, the United States is trying to curb domestic violent extremism and cyber attacks from Russia and China.
With the rapid withdrawal of US troops and the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan, “I think Al Qaeda has an opportunity, and they will take advantage of this opportunity,” said Chris Costa, a former senior director of counter-terrorism in Afghanistan. Trump administration.
“For jihadists all over the world, this is an exciting event.”
As a result of the 20-year war in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda’s team has been significantly reduced. It is unclear whether the organization has the ability to carry out catastrophic attacks on the United States in the near future, such as the 9/11 attacks, especially considering the past 20 years. During the year, the United States strengthened itself through surveillance and other protective measures.
However, a report by the UN Security Council in June stated that the organization’s senior leadership and hundreds of armed personnel are still in Afghanistan. The report states that the Taliban, who sheltered Al-Qaeda fighters before the September 11 attack, “maintained close relationships based on friendship, history of common struggle, ideological sympathy, and intermarriage.”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby admitted on Friday that al-Qaeda still exists in Afghanistan, but it is difficult to quantify it because of the decline in intelligence gathering capacity in the country and “because they don’t carry ID cards and register somewhere like they do.” .
Even at home, al-Qaida and the Taliban represent only two pressing terrorism issues, as evidenced by concerns that the Islamic State may attack Americans in Afghanistan, forcing the U.S. military to develop new methods to get evacuees to Kabul over the weekend. Airport. The Taliban and the Islamic State have fought in the past, but now the worry is that Afghanistan may once again become a safe haven for many extremists determined to attack the United States or other countries.
US President Joe Biden has repeatedly talked about his so-called “over-the-horizon capability,” which he said will enable the United States to track terrorist threats from a distance. His national security adviser Jack Sullivan told reporters on Monday that anti-terrorism capabilities have developed to the point where threats can be suppressed without a strong presence on the ground. Presumably, the United States also expects that enhanced airport inspections and more sophisticated surveillance can thwart attacks more effectively than it did 20 years ago.
But experts are also worried that the intelligence-gathering capabilities required as an early warning system against attacks will be negatively affected by the withdrawal.
An additional complication is the sheer number of urgent national security threats, which dwarfs the threats the US government faced before the September 11 attacks. These include complex cyber operations from China and Russia that can weaken critical infrastructure or steal sensitive secrets, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and the threat of domestic terrorism exposed by the U.S. Congressional riots on January 6.
FBI Director Chris Wray described this homegrown threat as “transferred.” Since his first year in office in 2017, the number of arrests of white supremacists and racially motivated extremists has almost It has tripled.
“My concern is that you can’t compare 2001 with today,” said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University. He said that there is a “larger and more organized bureaucracy,” but its burden has nothing to do with terrorism.
Hoffman said that although he believes that Al Qaeda cannot quickly use Afghanistan as a launch pad for attacks on the United States, it may re-establish a “coordination function” in the area to cooperate and encourage its affiliates to launch attacks. — A patience strategy that may prove to be correct.
“Terrorist organizations do not observe train schedules or flight schedules,” Hoffman said. “They do what suits them, just like Al Qaeda did. They quietly laid the foundation, hoping that this foundation will ultimately affect or determine their success.”
Biden administration officials told Congress last week that based on the changing situation, they now believe that terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda may grow faster than expected, and this concern is enough to resonate. In June of this year, the top leader of the Pentagon stated that extremist organizations such as Al Qaeda may be reborn in Afghanistan within two years of the withdrawal of US troops and pose a threat to the United States.
The September 11 attacks made Al Qaeda the most well-known terrorist organization in the world, but for at least the past ten years, the most powerful threat in the United States has come from individuals inspired by the Islamic State, leading to deadly massacres like San. Bernardino, California and Orlando.
But Al Qaeda has hardly disappeared. U.S. authorities claimed last year that the Saudi gunman who killed three U.S. sailors at a military base in Florida in 2019 had communicated plans and tactics with members of Al Qaeda. In December last year, the Justice Department accused a Kenyan man of attempting to launch a 9/11-style attack on the United States on behalf of the al-Qaida terrorist organization Al-Shabaab.
Now, other extremists may find themselves inspired by al-Qaeda, even if they are not directed by al-Qaeda.
“Until recently, I would say that the threat from Al-Qaeda’s core is fairly moderate. They have no safe haven in Afghanistan, and their senior leadership is scattered,” said Nathan Sells, a former counter-terrorism coordinator at the State Department.
But now as the Taliban regain control, “all of this may change, and it may change very quickly.”
© 2021 Canadian Press
