Estimates for merchandise exports for January 2023 were released today. A big jump from the pre-pandemic past, but not from the recent past.
figure 1: U.S. merchandise exports rose month-over-month, seasonally adjusted (blue). Dates of peak-to-trough recessions as defined by NBER are shaded in gray. Source: Population census via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
The standard deviation rose from 0.023 to 0.066 (2007M01-19M12, 20M01-23M01) Given the impact of the pandemic (as seen by the sharp drop in exports in 2022), some of the volatility may be due to estimated seasonality. However, I suspect at least This is partly due to supply chain issues and fluctuations in overseas demand.
A similar pattern exists for imports.
figure 2: U.S. merchandise imports rose month-over-month, seasonally adjusted (blue). Dates of peak-to-trough recessions as defined by NBER are shaded in gray. Light blue indicates a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. Source: Population census via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
The standard deviation increased from 0.026 to 0.043. Interestingly, while imports fell in the second quarter of 2022, they were not far off from the declines seen during the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. Of course, one has to be cautious about interpreting imports as being driven entirely by demand, given supply chain constraints, including production disruptions in China and elsewhere (a typical approach to estimating U.S. goods imports in “normal” times assumes elastic supply).
