This Bureau of Economic Analysis It was announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.9% in the third quarter. This puts values close to historical averages for two consecutive quarters, a welcome consolation from the moderately negative growth rate we started last year.
Real GDP annual growth rate from 2Q 1947 to 4Q 2022, historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated by multiplying the natural logarithm difference between GDP and the previous quarter by 400 times.
new data lead to Econbrowser Recession Indicator Index It fell to 8.3%, erasing cautionary signals from the previous two quarters. This is an assessment of the economic situation in the previous quarter, i.e. the third quarter of 2022. While some observers think the U.S. may have entered a recession last year, the facts don’t ultimately back up their pessimism.
Index of recession indicators based on GDP. The plotted values for each date are based only on publicly available GDP data as of the last quarter of the date indicated, with Q3 2022 being the last date shown on the chart. Shaded areas represent NBER recession dates, which were not used in any way to construct the index.
Nevertheless, the real estate industry is not as good as it should be, and the Fed’s inflation war has zero ground for the real estate industry. Over the past three quarters, the drop in new home construction has shaved an average of 1.2% off annual GDP growth. A rate hike by the Fed will undoubtedly hinder economic growth.
The yield curve suggests the market is betting on one or two more modest rate hikes from the Fed, only to reverse course and lower rates by the end of the year.
