It is clear that generators and gas suppliers are the problem with reduced supply during the winter crisis of 2021. FERC/NERC report.
Most of the problems with many generators tripping, derating or failing to start during the event were directly or indirectly attributable to the cold weather itself. For the Southwest as a whole, 67% of generator failures (by MWh) are directly attributable to weather-related causes including frozen sensing lines, frozen equipment, frozen water pipes, frozen valves, Ice, low temperature cutoff limits and similar. At least another 12 percent of losses were indirectly caused by weather (caused by natural gas curtailment of gas-fired generators and difficulties switching fuels).
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The problems in natural gas are largely the result of declining production in five basins in the Southwest. Between February 1 and February 5, the estimated production loss was 14.8 Bcf. These declines propagated downstream through the rest of the natural gas transmission chain, ultimately resulting in less gas for more than 50,000 customers in New Mexico, Arizona and Texas.
Production losses stem from three things: freezes, icy roads, and rolling blackouts or customer cutbacks. Freezing occurs when small amounts of water produced next to the natural gas crystallize or freeze, completely blocking gas flow and shutting down the well. Freezing usually occurs during very cold weather and affected at least some of these basins in all six recent cold weather events in the Southwest, with the possible exception of 1983, which was not well documented.
During the February incident, icy roads prevented maintenance crews and equipment from reaching the well and pumping produced water, which would have caused the well to automatically shut down if it remained in storage tanks at the wellhead. ERCOT outages or customer brownouts primarily impacted the Permian and Fort Worth Basins, causing or contributing to 29% (Permian Basin) and 27% (Fort Worth) of production interruptions, primarily due to shutting down electric Caused by pumping unit or compressor. Wire.
What about renewable energy? For wind power, footnote 89:
Hourly forecast wind resources are also not included in the calculation of available resources to meet the Response Reserve requirement. One of the most notable differences between the NERC winter assessment and the ERCOT operation is the treatment of wind power. The NERC winter assessment designates a fixed average output of 8.7% of nameplate rating as “existing specific” generating capacity. This equates to 811 MW for ERCOT’s installed wind capacity of 9317 MW (gross nameplate rating). Operations, on the other hand, utilize wind power forecasts derived from highly localized wind speed forecasts, providing hourly wind power output values for the next 48 hours. The forecast is re-run every hour and the results are updated accordingly, resulting in a “rolling” 48-hour forecast. ERCOT’s Current Operating Plan (COP) for wind uses conservative estimates of an 80% chance of being met or exceeded, and already takes into account any equipment outages (whether planned or mandated). On the morning of February 2, the total COP of wind power peaked at about 5200 MW at 3:00 am, and decreased steadily every hour until it dropped to 3500 MW at 8:00 am. Actual wind generation follows the same downward trend, but is below the COP figure, ranging from 400 MW to 1,000 MW, depending on the time of day. (This snapshot demonstrates the variability of wind power generation.)
So while there is variability in wind power, this is understandable and factored into the risk assessment (ERCOT may not be the best option).In the event of a 2021 winter crisis, the gap in renewable energy generation could be seen to be dwarfed by the gap in non-renewable energy generation, as shown in the chart below, taken from Busby et al. “Cascading Risks: Understanding Texas’ 2021 Winter Blackouts,” Energy Research and Social Sciences, Volume 77, July 2021, 102106.
source: Busby et al. (2021).
Now, FERC/NERC may have been taken over by the Lizardmen as part of a plan to completely conquer humanity that began long ago with the arrival of the “Ancient Aliens” TM value. If you believe this and are still taking hydroxychloroquine to prevent COVID-19, then skip the above. However, if you consider the FERC/NERC staffing levels to be qualified and knowledgeable, then I think the report is worth reading.
