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Full revision: Little change in trajectory


Although there are some views that GDP growth will be revised downward significantly (see discussion) here), recent trajectories of GDP and GDO Basically unchanged (even from 2019 onwards).Many of the revisions are summarized in this diagram Pavus Skrzypczynski:

source: Pavus Skrzypczynski.

Since the data is indexed to the fourth quarter of 2019 (the peak defined by NBER), it is difficult to see grade Real GDP, GDO and GDI have risen sharply in recent quarters.I show these aggregations Chained$ (SAAR) 2012 To see this better.

figure 1: GDP after revision (black bold), GDP before revision (grey), GDI after revision (bold red), GDI before revision (light red), GDO after revision (bold blue), before revision of GDO (light blue), all in Chained 2012$ SAAR. The revised 2012 figures are calculated by dividing the nominal value by the revised GDP deflator. Source: BEA 2023Q2 3rd Edition/Consolidated Revision, ALFRED, and author’s calculations.

One big difference is the level of fixed non-residential investment (see the center panel in Skrzypczynski’s chart). More on that soon.



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