from Bank of East Asia:
source: Bank of East Asia.
Nominal personal income rose in all states.
source: Bank of East Asia.
However, we are concerned with real personal income. I use (nationally) sequential CPI inflation (2.71% q/q AR) for deflation and calculate Q4 q/q AR growth.
figure 1: Real personal income growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 (annualized). source: BEA, BLS, and author's calculations.
Seven states experienced negative real personal income growth: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas and Hawaii.
Coincident index through January Draw a different picture than GDP or real personal income.
source: Philadelphia Fed.
This is a time series of the diffusion index that coincides with the 3-month growth rate of the index.
Figure 1: Diffusion index of the 3-month growth rate of the consensus index. source: Philadelphia FedMarch 2024.
