With GDI reporting, we no longer need to guess to calculate GDO. GDP+ is also reported. We got the following images through Q4.
figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow of 3/24 (red squares), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. The GDP+ level calculated by iteratively calculating the growth rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019. Source: BEA, 2022Q4 Third Edition, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphiaand the authors’ calculations.
It is interesting to contrast these results with our idea two months ago; then GDO (which sets the net operating component at Q3 2022 levels) falls below GDP. On the other hand, GDP+ is lower than originally estimated, and GDP+ growth is definitely decelerating.
Nonetheless, it is interesting that GDP+ continues to rise throughout the first half of 2022, suggesting that economic activity is not slowing down in line with a recession.
