The FY24 Budget is released today.With forecasts locked in in late November, the macro outlook has changed so much that the government feels compelled to add a “An update on the government’s economic assumptions”. This is the forecast (based on Table S-9 Budget).
figure 1: Reported GDP (black), government forecasts (sky blue squares), CBO forecasts (brown), professional forecasters survey median (red), GDPNow (3/8) (light green triangles). Dates of peak-to-trough recessions as defined by NBER are shaded in gray. Sources: BEA 2022Q4 2nd Edition, FY 2024 Budget, Form S-9, CBO, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and authors’ calculations.
The Troika (OMB-CEA-Treasury) forecast is very similar to the CBO forecast finalized in January, but slightly less optimistic than the median (end-2023) of the February survey of professional forecasters.
Table S-9 is reproduced below:
