Health officials warned that Covid passports may not be enough to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, and that “tighter restrictions” may need to be considered next month.
Covid-19 modeling paper from Health department The Minister of Administration has been notified that the number of positive cases has increased by 23% within a week.
The newspaper seen by the PA News Agency attributed the surge in part to the relaxation of the hotel industry at the end of October and the return of schools after midterm.
The number of hospitalizations increased by 19% last week, and the occupancy rate increased by 10%.
There is evidence that the public’s compliance with the guidelines is declining, and the hotel industry’s adoption rate of Covid certification on a voluntary basis is very low
The transfer rate of cases has risen to more than 2% for the first time since the beginning of September, and is currently estimated to be around 2.8%.
The newspaper said that the increase in enrollment in the next week is inevitable, and if the number of cases does not decrease, the enrollment will continue to increase.
Officials warned that community transmission is at a “high level and is increasing rapidly.”
The model paper pointed out that ICU occupancy rates and deaths declined last week, but emphasized that the lag of these indicators means they did not take into account the recent surge in infections.
Experts from the Ministry of Health stated that if further interventions are not taken “as soon as possible”, the modeling shows that if the current trajectory follows the central path, hospital capacity may exceed in mid-December.
The document states: “There is evidence that the public’s compliance with the guidelines is declining, and the hotel industry’s adoption rate of Covid certification on a voluntary basis is very low.”
It pointed out the need to take immediate measures to strengthen compliance with current mitigation measures-such as the use of masks and work-from-home guidance.
It stated that unless accompanied by “widespread use of Covid certification in high-risk environments,” these mitigation measures are unlikely to bring the replication rate below one.
The document warns that the combination of all these measures may not be enough to reduce the number of cases.
It stated that if there is no significant decline in community transmission in the next three weeks, “it may be necessary to consider adopting stricter restrictions starting in mid-December to avoid overwhelming hospital capacity”.
