Using CME Futures, starting today at 1:30CT:
figure 1: Federal funds in effect (black), Federal funds are implied. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, CME Group Fed Watchaccessed 3/15 1:40PM CT, and author’s calculations.
There are two pieces of news today – the first is about Credit Suisse and the second is macro news, of which lower than PPI, as did retail sales (slightly). My guess is that financial pressures predominate.
Interestingly, the path was higher a week ago relative to a month ago, likely incorporating Chairman Powell’s rather hawkish comments on the persistence of inflation and subsequent Fed policy. In this case, the downside to the implied path for Fed funds is all the more compelling.
