It's Wednesday and I have some engagements in Melbourne (recording a podcast for the Inside Network) that require some travel. So time is very tight. Today, I updated the latest news from Japan based on the “Monetary Policy Statement” released by the Bank of Japan yesterday. The parallel universe continues and is delivering remarkable results, while the rest of the world's policymakers, consumed by neoliberal nonsense, bury their heads in the sand and their economies are reduced to ashes. I have also provided links to some video recordings of the Japanese version of the “Recover the Nation” press conference held in Kyoto in November 2023. I've also included a link to a major article published in some of Japan's leading magazines. If that's not enough, we also have Voodoo Sons.
Yesterday (December 19, 2023), the Bank of Japan released the latest data – monetary policy statement – Update their views on interest rates, inflation, Yield Curve Control (YCC) and other issues.
Financial markets have been in trouble by predicting that the Bank of England will ease its zero interest rate policy and YCC.
However, central banks continue to demonstrate a key tenet of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) – that the issuer of money is in control, and that financial markets only truly have scope as long as the issuer of money allows them to.
The latest decision from the Bank of Japan is:
– “The central bank will implement a negative interest rate of minus 0.1% on current account policy rate balances held by financial institutions with the central bank.”
This means that commercial banks will pay banks if they have excess reserves.
– “The central bank will purchase the necessary amount of Japanese government bonds (JGB) without setting a cap so that the 10-year JGB yield remains around zero.”
Demonstrates that the issuer of a currency can always set the yield on government bonds of all maturities.
– “The central bank will use the upper limit of 1.0% on the 10-year Japanese government bond yield as a reference for market operations.”
As above.
The central bank also pointed out:
In terms of prices, the annual increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI, all items excluding fresh food) has slowed down from the previous period, mainly due to the impact of government economic measures to lower energy prices.
Therefore, fiscal policy can help reduce inflation.
The central bank pointed out that “by fiscal 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI (all goods except fresh food) may exceed 2%, due to factors including the residual impact passed on to consumers.” In the past, rising import prices have driven up costs rise. Thereafter, growth is expected to slow as these factors dissipate. “
Although interest rates were unchanged, the government used fiscal policy to provide some cash relief to households experiencing cost-of-living pressures.
The overall message to financial markets is clear:
As long as it is necessary to maintain the target in a stable manner, the central bank will continue to implement quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) and yield curve control, aiming to achieve the price stability objective. Continue to expand the monetary base until the observed CPI (all items excluding fresh food) increases by more than 2% annually and stabilizes above the target level. The central bank will continue to maintain financing (mainly corporate financing) and financial market stability and will not hesitate to take additional easing measures when necessary.
The question that mainstream economists should be paraded in front of the public and forced to answer is how Japan can do this and achieve economic growth (albeit modestly) while the rest of the world shrinks due to misguided monetary and fiscal austerity , and is getting into trouble. Is the inflation rate higher than Japan?
The neo-Keynesian mob never answers questions like this directly, because they can't.
Excess mortality data – August 2023
On December 18, 2023, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest data— Measuring Australia's excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2023.
The latest data is as of March 2023.
Therefore, we are getting better time series to conduct more robust research on this topic.
The ABS said the purpose of the data series was to answer “research questions”:
How do the number of deaths that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023) compare to the number of deaths that would have been expected without the pandemic?
They provide the following definition:
Excess mortality is generally defined as the difference between the number of deaths observed during a specific time period and the number of deaths expected during the same time period.
The excess may come directly from Covid 19 or other complicating factors.
But it tells us that Australian mortality rates have increased significantly since the pandemic, far beyond what we would have expected given a range of control measures.
Summary results:
– Mortality in the first eight months of 2023 is 6.1% higher than expected.
– Mortality rates in July and August 2023 are closer to expected levels.
– The mortality rate in the first eight months of 2022 is 14.1% higher than expected.
As Australia enters a new wave of COVID-19, we expect this excess to rise over the coming months.
The table below summarizes the evolution of these data.
When there were strict restrictions and people wore masks (in 2020), there were positive results.
That year, restrictions were lifted, people stopped looking out for each other, and excess mortality soared.
You will notice that I always wear a mask in public.
Playing games is a small price to pay for at least some protection for yourself and those around you.
The Smith Family Comics Episode 8 will be released this Friday
The Smiths are still on vacation in Japan and visited a historic shrine with the Fujii family.
Inevitably, the conversation turns to money, and Hao deftly gets Ryan to articulate a position contrary to his prejudices.
Ryan didn't even know he was being led down a path from which there was no turning back.
To visit – The Smith Family and Their Money Adventure.
Tokyo interview
While I was in Tokyo recently, I gave a series of interviews to reporters about my views on Japan and the world economy.
A very long interview for— oriental economic magazine – is one of the largest publishers of political, business and economic articles, headquartered in Tokyo.
it is – oriental economic weekly – The magazine was founded in 1895 and has a wide circulation in Japan.
This week they published my interview with them, divided into two parts:
1. Part 1 – Exclusive interview with Professor Bill Mitchell, founder of Modern Monetary Theory: “Government bonds should not be issued, and interest rates should be zero.”[Part 1] (Published online on December 16, 2023)
2. Part 2 – Exclusive interview with MMT founder Professor Bill Mitchell: “Even if there is a budget deficit, interest rates will not rise”[Part 2] (Published online on December 17, 2023)
The title translates to:
Part One “Exclusive interview with Professor Bill Mitchell, founder of Modern Monetary Theory: “Government bonds should not be issued and interest rates should be zero. ” [Part 1]”
Part 2 “Exclusive interview with MMT founder Professor Bill Mitchell: “Even if there is a budget deficit, interest rates will not rise” [Part 2]”
It is understood that these articles have been well received in Japan and have been widely reported.
So at least people are reading Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) from one of the original books.
“Recover the Country” Japanese version launch event
On Sunday 5 November 2023, Kyoto University hosted an event to launch the Japanese translation of our 2017 book – Taking Back the State: A Progressive Vision of Sovereignty in a Post-Neoliberal World (Pluto Books, September 2017).
The translation was done by Chikako Nakayama (professor at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies) and Masanori Suzuki (translator).
Speakers at the event included translators Professor Fujii Satoshi (Professor at Kyoto University Graduate School), Keita Shibayama (Associate Professor at Kyoto University Graduate School) and myself.
The presentation was followed by a group discussion.
This video captures the entire incident.
Music – Jimi Hendrix
This is what I heard at work this morning.
One of the great tracks that will be on my last played list (-:
This is the full version – Voodoo Chile – included on his 1968 double album – Electric Goddess Paradise (released October 16, 1968, recorded May 2, 1968) in New York.
All 14:50 minutes.
I bought this album in 1969 from an import shop on Bourke Street in Melbourne, as soon as it arrived.
I was still in high school but dreaming about Jimi Hendrix.
As most people now know, the riff was derived from the song – muddy water – rolling stones.
By the way, there's a Rolling Stones version of their latest album, which is pretty special.
On this track are:
1. Stevie Winwood – Hammond Organ (from Traffic at the time).
2. Jack Cassidy – Bass (from Jefferson Airplane).
3. Mitch Mitchell – drum.
4. Jimi Hendrix – Vocals, Guitar.
When I was young, this song and playing transported one to “infinite suburbia,” one of the lyrics Jimi Hendrix sang in the verse.
I'm still amazed by the spontaneity of the playing.
That's enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2023 William Mitchell. all rights reserved.
