The downturn is not yet in sight as personal income, consumption, manufacturing and trade sector sales release. If consensus holds, the momentum will continue into August. Below are some key indicators that NBER BCDC follows, along with monthly GDP and GDPNow.
figure 1: Non-farm employment, NFP (dark blue), clerical employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2012 personal income excluding transfers (green), 2012 manufacturing and trade sales $ (black), 2012 Consumption Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), GDPNow for 2023Q2 is 8/31, all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 Second release via FRED, atlanta fed, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigeria Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (8/1/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
Concerns over NBER BCDC’s closely followed CES series (Nonfarm Payrolls) grossly overcounting employment eased Preliminary Baseline Revision.
High-frequency indicators, including the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (New York Fed) weekly economic indicator, showed growth of 1.94% year-on-year for the week ended Aug. 26.
Employment figures and monthly GDP are due tomorrow.
